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Rick Dimino
With the election of Joe Biden to the presidency, we can now dispense with a wide range of hypotheticals regarding the federal government’s philosophy and plans for the next four years.
Elected officials and business leaders in Massachusetts can capitalize on this moment, but it will require proactive steps at the state level and a rethinking of some current proposals to anticipate future federal partnerships that would lead our economic recovery, specifically in the areas of state taxes, the MBTA budget and our approach to infrastructure projects.
The next major federal recovery legislation is important for many reasons, but it is connected to a possible debate on increasing state taxes in Massachusetts. Without another round of federal financial aid, there will be increased pressure to raise broad-based taxes to support a Massachusetts state budget in 2021.
This year, Massachusetts is relying on funding from the federal CARES Act and also over $1 billion from our state rainy-day fund. Next year, if the federal government turns its back on the commonwealth, we are likely to face some combination of significant budget cuts, layoffs, or new tax increases.
Fortunately, based on Biden’s election and recent comments from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, it looks promising that federal aid to state governments will eventually arrive. We can also expect another round of small business loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and increased funding for transit systems. The amount of funding and timing of this next package are both unclear, but these signals from federal leaders should help set the right tone for Massachusetts legislators and avoid talk of increased taxes in the next few months.
Counterproductive Steps at the MBTA
Unfortunately, there are serious concerns with the forecasts for fiscal year 2021 at the MBTA. The agency advanced proposals last week that would reduce transit service throughout the system, including with major reductions in the commuter rail, elimination of water ferry service, and fewer, less frequent bus routes.
There is value in advance scenario planning, but the MBTA should not act now on transit cuts for next year. Instead, the MBTA should wait at least three months before approving their next budget and service plans, so that the federal government has more time to act.
The transit agency’s budget is currently is strong shape this year, thanks to last March’s federal CARES Act funding, so these cuts are planned to take effect next spring and summer. It is more than reasonable to expect more transit aid to arrive, and while the federal government could fail to act again, the transit aid component of the CARES Act only represented only 1 percent of the bill, and it passed a Republican-led Senate.
MBTA officials claim these cuts can be quickly reversed. However, if the MBTA’s plans go forward, this will be difficult because service cuts translate directly into layoffs of the highly skilled and specialized transit professionals who operate those services. This is the exact wrong strategy for the MBTA budget, workers, and the economy.
Results from a recent A Better City employee survey indicate that steady increases in the numbers of workers returning to workplace could begin as early as next spring and summer, and that those commuters would like to return to the same mode of transportation they used prior to the pandemic. It is imperative that robust transit service is available then to effectively to respond to increased commuters, to avoid overwhelming roadway congestion and to address regional equity and environmental goals.
The business community and our regional economy rely on the MBTA to be safe, reliable and adequate for current riders who’ve built their lives around its service. The T’s planned cuts will not deliver this for too many in Massachusetts.
Don’t Waste the Opportunity
One lesson is clear from a pre-pandemic assessment of the MBTA: Massachusetts requires a 21st century transit system with more frequent, faster, safer and cleaner service, particularity on our bus and commuter rail networks. Cutting the transit system to the bare bones with hopes of slowly reinstating a 20th century-quality transit strategy is not consistent with our economic, equity and environmental goals for the next decade.
To make meaningful steps forward with the MBTA – even during this difficult budgetary time – there should be active steps to align our future infrastructure needs with the Biden administration’s plans. Key transportation projects, such as the Red-Blue connector, an electrified regional commuter rail system, an all-electric bus fleet and improved maintenance facilities could be supported by federal funds, if we advance the design work in the next six months.
All of these projects would make progress toward reducing carbon emissions from our transportation sector and anticipate our future statewide transit needs, but they can’t happen in the next decade if design work is left undone.
The fundamental fiscal policies of the coming Biden administration and proven federal economic recovery strategies passed by Congress are solid guides for Massachusetts leaders in the months ahead. Coordinating our efforts and budget expectations at the state, local and MBTA will not be simple or without some risk, but it is the correct strategy forward for creating stronger recovery and future economy in metropolitan Boston.
Rick Dimino is CEO of A Better City
