Rick Dimino

A serious conversation is starting about how the MBTA might adapt if ridership remains low for the extended future. This effort could become a real opportunity for elected officials, the business community and riders to unite and establish new goals for public transit that meets our high expectations, economic needs of the region and is aligned with our fundamental values for the people of Massachusetts. It will not be easy, but this debate over the MBTA budget can become a chance to reset our vision of a modern transit system that plants the seeds for the long-term prosperity of the region.  

MBTA leadership and entire workforce stepped up over the last six months to deliver for the commonwealth during this unprecedented time. The entire MBTA organization deserves praise for their courage and responsible approach to transit service during this difficult time. General Manager Steve Poftak said it best: “MBTA employees are essential people moving essential people.”  

Fortunately, we have not needed to talk about immediate cuts to the T’s operating budget, because the federal CARES Act supplied the MBTA with over $800 million in extra transit aid. The MBTA plans to draw upon this money until June 2021.  

However, the conversation over the MBTA’s future budgets will test this commitment to essential workers, transit-dependent communities and the threat from carbon emissions. In fiscal year 2022 – beginning only nine months from now – the MBTA estimates a budget gap of between $300 million and $600 million, depending on ridership levels, without new revenue to support current service levels or cuts to reduce costs. The MBTA leadership suggests all options are on the table, including potential layoffs and reductions in bus and commuter rail frequency.  

What Options Exist? 

One potential strategy would be to shift funds away from planned infrastructure repairs and upgrades. This is a very risky approach for the MBTA, considering the recent history of train derailments and the massive state of good repair backlog throughout the system. Instead of shortchanging capital maintenance plans, T leaders should strongly consider increasing short-term borrowing and taking out new debt.  

Fare increases are not a viable solution to this budget gap, either, because we need to incentivize riders to return to the system. We should expect that MBTA ridership will remain lower than pre-pandemic levels for a few years, even if there is a COVID-19 vaccine available and we have a return to normalcy. It will take time for riders to return to past practice on transit, as working-from-home continues for many companies, the regional economy slowly rebounds and perceptions of public health concerns linger in some quarters.   

The MBTA should also look at short-term changes to the commuter rail system, but significant cost savings may not be possible until there is a re–procurement of the commuter rail operating contract, which runs through 2025. 

The most likely solution to the T’s budget shortfall is another round of federal help.  

The House of Representatives passed a plan in May that included $15 billion for transit agencies, including $500 million for the MBTA. During the summer, many senators and transportation advocates set expectations that the next economic aid package should deliver more than double the House’s amount.  

While the dysfunction of the Senate is obvious and unfortunate, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, recently made it clear that aid to state governments and transit systems must be a part of the next federal recovery plan for it to move forward. Transit systems across the country face financial challenges, with New York’s MTA being the signature example, so it is appropriate that the federal government helps solve the problem. 

Opportunity for Deeper Discussions 

If and when the federal government delivers additional money for transit, the MBTA would be on strong footing for the near future. Therefore, it would be a missed opportunity if the larger conversation about the MBTA’s future ends when federal money arrives.  

Commuters and workers may be more likely to drive to work today, but this is not a long-term strategy for the region. Devastating roadway congestion will eventually return, and we would fail to meet our equity responsibilities to many communities and to transit–dependent riders without a 21st century transit system.  

The developing conversation is an ideal opportunity for advocates and the business community to seek concrete details on the many transit improvements studied and suggested in the past few years. A big–picture conversation about the operating budget is also a chance to learn about timelines on the key projects that are essential to our future, like an all-electric bus system or resilient and decarbonized infrastructure.  

In a few years, when we have overcome the pandemic and the metropolitan Boston economy continues to be one of the strongest in the nation, Massachusetts will need a robust public transit system to support our mobility needs and reach our carbon emission goals. We cannot achieve these goals without a safe, reliable and modern MBTA.  

Today’s conversation about the MBTA budget gap is the best opportunity to focus on the necessary steps to put this system in place within a few years. 

Rick Dimino is CEO of A Better City.