Annual gains in improvement and repair spending on the owner-occupied housing stock are projected to continue decelerating through early next year nationwide, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released this week by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The LIRA forecasts that year-over-year growth in homeowner remodeling expenditure will slow from about 7 percent today to 2.6 percent by the first quarter of 2020.

“Cooling house price gains, home sales activity and remodeling permitting are lowering our expectations for home improvement and repair spending this year and next,” JCHS Managing Director Chris Herbert said in a statement. “Yet, more favorable mortgage rates could still give a boost to home sales and refinancing this spring and summer, which could help buoy remodeling activity.”

The LIRA provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.

“Home improvement and repair spending has been in an extended period of above trend growth for several years, due to weak homebuilding, aging homes, and other factors,” Abbe Will, associate project director in the Remodeling Futures Program at the JCHS, said in a statement. “However, growth in remodeling is expected to fall below the market’s historical average of 5 percent for the first time since 2013.”